RealClearDefense Weekly Recon

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1961, in an effort to stem the tide of refugees attempting to leave East Berlin, the communist government of East Germany begins building the Berlin Wall to divide East and West Berlin. Construction of the wall caused a short-term crisis in U.S.-Soviet bloc relations, and the wall itself came to symbolize the Cold War. In the days and weeks to come, construction of a concrete block wall began, complete with sentry towers and minefields around it. The Berlin Wall succeeded in completely sealing off the two sections of Berlin. 

On the Ground

The U.S. military is exploring the future of infantry operations, and it recently tasked Lockheed Martin with the job of developing concepts of future technologies for infantry squads. Under a program dubbed Squad X Core Technologies, Lockheed was awarded $12.8 million to design and test prototype equipment for dismounted infantry units. The undertaking could prove difficult however, as the Army has long aimed at fielding new high-tech equipment for its grunts through sweeping technological advancement programs, but often come up short. As Stephen Carlson at UPI notes, “High costs and the difficulties of using sophisticated equipment while moving on foot in complicated environments has delayed deployment.” Beyond Squad X, the U.S. Army is also looking to replace its M249 Squad Automatic Weapon (SAW) under a program called the Next Generation Squad Automatic Rifle (NGSAR). But, the Army wants to explore the possibility of the NGSAR filling a number of different roles, including: carbine, medium machine gun, and designated marksman rifle. But as Joseph Trevithick points out at The War Zone, the Army has a long track record of failing in such endeavors, from the M-60’s development to the failed XM-8 family of rifles. The Army has yet to decide just how wide of a scope the NGSAR will have.

Air Superiority

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1775, the legal origin of the Army

U.S. Army

Chaplains Corps is found in a resolution of the Continental Congress, adopted July 29, 1775, which made provision for the pay of chaplains. The Office of the Chief of Chaplains was created later by the National Defense Act of 1920. Furthermore, the Office of Judge Advocate of the Army may be deemed to have been created on July 29, 1775, and has generally paralleled the origin and development of the American system of military justice. The Judge Advocate General’s Department, by that name, was established in 1884. Its present designation as a corps was enacted in 1948.

Land Warfare

The Pentagon is on high alert ahead of Russia’s massive military exercise, ZAPAD 17, Sandra Erwin reported at RealClearDefense this week. Set to begin in mid-September in Belarus, the U.S. and its allies will be keeping close tabs on the exercises, where Russia is expected to showcase new weapons, technologies, and tactics. Described as “a window into Russia’s military mind,” The month of September will be tense, however, as the nations bordering Belarus are concerned that ZAPAD may be a Russian “Trojan Horse” operation.

The final stage of the Zapad-2013 Russian-Belarusian strategic military exercises. Kremlin

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1987, in a dramatic turnaround, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev indicates that he is willing to negotiate a ban on intermediate-range nuclear missiles without conditions. Gorbachev’s decision paved the way for the groundbreaking Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with the United States. On July 22, 1987, Gorbachev dramatically announced that he was ready to discuss the elimination of intermediate-range missiles on a worldwide basis, with no conditions. In December 1987, during a summit in Washington, the two men signed off on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which eliminated an entire class of nuclear weapons.

On the Ground

Major John Spencer of the U.S. Military Academy’s Modern War Institute penned an insightful piece in the Wall Street Journal this week on the future of armed conflict and its shift from the open field to the confines of the urban jungle. Using the battle of Mosul as an example, Spencer notes: “America’s next war will be the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu on steroids.” Spencer has long advocated for greater attention to be paid to urban warfare in the way that the U.S. military thinks about and prepares for war. He advocates for the use of abandoned quadrants of major U.S. cities to be taken over by the military and used as training areas, such as is done in mountains, swamps, and deserts across the country. Writing at the Modern War Institute, Zachary Griffiths draws from experiences in Mosul, current U.S. doctrine on urban warfare, and existing training programs to chart a potential route forward in developing military preparedness for combat in urban environments. Focusing on urban combat will require major paradigm shifts across the military, but Spencer and Griffiths provide concrete examples of how to chart this new course.

Air Superiority

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1958, President Eisenhower ordered 5,000 U.S. Marines to Lebanon, at the request of that country’s president, Camille Chamoun, in the face of a perceived threat by Muslim rebels; to help end a short-lived civil war. And in 1987, Former National Security Adviser John Poindexter testified at the Iran-Contra hearings that he had never told President Reagan about using Iranian arms sales money for the Contras in order to protect the president from possible political embarrassment.

Ground Battle

ISIS received two blows this week with mounting evidence that its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is dead and the Iraqi government’s claims of victory in Mosul. The Syrian Observation for Human Rights claimed to have confirmation that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead, and the U.S. general leading operations against ISIS in the Middle East, Lt. General Stephen Townsend, all but corroborated reports of Baghdadi’s death. Dead or not, Baghdadi’s demise does not promise the demise of the Islamic State. On Monday Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi was in Mosul to declare victory over the Islamic State, but fighting continued in the city as ISIS fighters transitioned back to more traditional insurgency tactics. The Pentagon is preparing for a protracted conflict against ISIS as it continues to lose ground and personnel. The Pentagon is pushing for authority to build “temporary” facilities in Syria and Iraq that will serve as bases to route out ISIS following the group’s territorial collapse. Though victory has been claimed, the fight is far from over. In Syria, the fight for Raqqa is quickly escalating, with U.S. troops reportedly entering the city alongside local allies. U.S. forces will be more forward deployed in the fight to liberate Raqqa.

Followings its decades long economic offensive on the African continent, China has deployed the first troops to its first ever permanent overseas base, located in Djibouti. Mere miles from Camp Lemonnier, the U.S. base in Djibouti, this deployment marks a new era in Chinese foreign policy. Touted as a “supply base,” China’s outpost in Djibouti will allow China to launch counterterrorism, anti-piracy, and other military operations on the African continent. This deployment follows recent reports that China is planning a second overseas base to be located in Pakistan.

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1853, Commodore Matthew Calbraith Perry, representing the U.S. government, sails into Tokyo Bay, Japan, with a squadron of four vessels. For a time, Japanese officials refused to speak with Perry, but under threat of attack by the superior American ships, they accepted letters from President Millard Fillmore, making the United States the first Western nation to establish relations with Japan since it had been declared closed to foreigners two centuries before.

Somalia: America’s “Forever War” –  The U.S. launched fresh airstrikes against al-Shabaab, Somalia’s al Qaeda affiliated group, this week, marking an uptick in ongoing hostilities in an often forgotten theater of the so-called “forever war.” These strikes follow a similar airstrike launched in June. Earlier this year the Trump administration declared Somalia an area of active hostilities. That decision was designed to give ground commanders more latitude regarding offensive airstrikes. Stars and Stripes reports that AFRICOM has not changed the guidelines for the decision to launch strikes, but the easing of restrictions has allowed AFRICOM to respond more quickly.

Al-Shabaab has been able to operate effectively in Somalia due to the country’s weak and often corrupt central government. The country has found new hope in its new president, Mohamed Abdullahi "Farmajo" Mohamed, who enjoyed popular support at the time of his election in February. Since then, the initial sense of promise has waned, and the political situation now verges on crisis. Thus far, “Farmajo” has not proven to be a source of political stability, which has always been elusive in post-colonial Somalia. Furthermore, the Somali military, greatly affected by the political instability, is not yet capable of keeping al Shabaab in check on its own.

Writing in the Washington Post, Tricia Bacon of American University offers her recent experiences in the region to show that al Shabaab won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. Barring a drastic change in the situation, the U.S. military is likely to remain in Somalia for the foreseeable future, especially following the expected withdrawal of African Union (AMISOM) troops in 2020. Although largely ineffectual, AMISOM has been responsible for the brunt of counterinsurgency operations in Somalia since 2007.

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1948, one of the most dramatic standoffs of the Cold War begins as the Soviet Union blocks all road and rail traffic to and from West Berlin. The blockade turned out to be a terrible diplomatic move by the Soviets, while the United States emerged from the confrontation with renewed purpose and confidence. The United States response came just two days after the Soviets began their blockade. A massive airlift of supplies into West Berlin was undertaken in what was to become one of the greatest logistical efforts in history. The successful American airlift merely served to accentuate the technological superiority of the United States over the Soviet Union. On May 12, 1949, the Soviets officially ended the blockade. 

The F-22 Isn’t Coming Back – Many have lamented the early end to the production of the F-22A Raptor. The

The F-22 is the Air Force's premium fifth-generation fighter asset.

U.S. Air Force photo/Justin Connaher

plane’s community of committed fans was let down this week when the Air Force finally released its report on the feasibility of reactivating the F-22’s production. The report revealed that it would be far too expensive, estimating that merely reactivating the production line, shut down since 2011, would cost up to $10 billion. It would cost and additional $40 billion to double the current fleet, at a per unit price of up to $216 million ($79 million more than the last F-22 to roll off the line), not to mention the amount of maintenance and continual upgrades. Already the most expensive plane in the Air Force’s arsenal to operate.

Aside from the expense, the F-22, designed in the 1980s, are technologically outdated.  The Raptor’s avionics are capable of only 1/25 the computing power of the original iPhone. As Dave Majumdar has pointed out at The National Interest:

“The Raptor’s avionics were dated even before the jet was declared operational in December 2005. While the Raptor is the most advanced operational warplane in the Air Force’s inventory, its computer architecture dates back to the early 1990s…The jet’s avionics would have to be completely revamped for a production restart, not just because they’re obsolete, but also because the jet’s antique processors and other components haven’t been made in decades.” 

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 2006, The Second Battle of Ramadi was fought for control of the capital of the Al Anbar Governorate in western Iraq. A combined force of U.S. Soldiers, U.S. Marines, U.S. Navy SEALs, and Iraqi Security Forces fought insurgents for control of key locations in Ramadi, including the Government Center and the General Hospital. Coalition strategy relied on establishing a number of patrol bases called Combat Operation Posts throughout the city. U.S. military officers believe that insurgent actions during the battle led to the formation of the Anbar Awakening.

RealClearDefense Welcomes Sandra Erwin – Sandra Erwin joined RealClearDefense last Monday. Sandra will write exclusively for RealClearDefense, reporting on the broad spectrum of defense issues, national security, and much more. She joins us following her tenure as Editor-in-Chief of National Defense Magazine.

Sandra wasted no time in her first week covering defense-in-depth from Secretary of Defense Mattis’ testimony to Congress on the defense budget and ongoing wars, the Boeing shaking up its defense business, to signaling broader shifts within the defense industry and foreign military sales (FMS). Sandra’s extensive experience stands out in her detailed and contextual reporting beyond the headlines. Make sure to read her reporting from this week, and follow her on Twitter.

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1871, A landing force of 110 U.S. Marines came ashore on Korea’s Kangwha Island, a fortress island guarding the approaches to Seoul. The Korean Punitive Expedition was launched from an American fleet, which anchored in the Han River after the isolationist Korean government rejected U.S. diplomatic demands for an explanation of the fate of an American ship and her crew believed killed by the Koreans. In two days of fighting, the Marines and sailors captured the defensive forts on the Island, leaving 243 Koreans dead. Nevertheless, the expedition failed to open Korea to foreign trade.

Growing Hypersonic Threat Outpaces U.S. Defenses – Secretary of Defense James Mattis claims that nothing keeps him awake at night, but the military commanders toss and turn over the future threat of hypersonic glide weapons. As offensive capabilities continue to advance, the means of defending against this emerging threat lag in development. All the while, potential adversaries, like Russia and China, continue to advance their hypersonic weapons programs. Currently, the U.S. does not have the means to stop such weapons, leaving forward deployed assets such as warships particularly vulnerable. The threat of nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons could prove to be a “game changer” in 21st century warfare. As Daniel Gouré, of the Lexington Institute, an article at RealClearDefense last week, the U.S. approach to missile defense is a slow process in need of increased funding. Furthermore, Gouré writes, “The U.S. has been focusing predominantly on enhancing our offensive to counter the improvements in adversaries’ defenses.” With hypersonic, this approach is too risky as the enemy’s offensive technology is advancing quickly.

The military has identified the threat and is taking steps to address it. The Trump Administration requested $75 million for “hypersonic defense” in the FY2018 defense budget. Paul Bradeer, an expert on hypersonic weapons, contends that automated electronic warfare systems prove the best path forward in developing systems to counter hypersonic weapons. As Joseph Trevithick points out at The War Zone, traditional ICBMs travel just as fast, or faster than the hypersonic glide weapons in development. However, ICBMs travel along predictable flight paths that existing technologies have been designed to detect. A new generation of radars and countermeasures will need to be developed to counter a threat that has, according to Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., "The threat has outpaced us." The U.S. must work quickly to play catch up.

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1864, Union General Ulysses S. Grant makes what he later recognizes to be his greatest mistake by ordering a frontal assault on entrenched Confederates at Cold Harbor. The result was some 7,000 Union casualties in less than an hour of fighting. Grant’s Army of the Potomac and Robert E. Lee’s Army of Northern Virginia had already inflicted frightful losses upon each other as they wheeled along an arc around Richmond—from the Wilderness to Spotsylvania and numerous smaller battle sites—the previous month. 

A-10 Thunderbolt II  (U.S. Air Force photo SrA Trevor T. McBride)

Keep on Brrrrt’n in the Free World – President Trump’s defense budget could be dead in the water, but it has shed light on the administration’s military and defense priorities. One big winner is the venerable A-10 Warthog. For years the plane has been threatened with retirement, and for years it has evaded the budget ax. Trump’s budget proposal allocates the fleet enough money to keep the plane flying for the foreseeable future. This follows a recent trend, which began this year in February when the Air Force announced that the A-10 would keep flying until at least 2021It’s unclear how familiar with the plane Trump was before taking office, but Rep. Martha McSally of Arizona, a former A-10 pilot, could take credit for boosting the plane’s profile on the President’s radar. Speaking at the Center for Security and International Studies, McSally told an audience that she had described the A-10 to Trump as, “A badass airplane with a big gun on it.” This is an even more effective pitch than Fairchild’s original line, “The closer it gets, the better it is for our troops on the ground.” Trump is sold on the plane, but it cannot be denied that the fleet is old and will need to be replaced. 

The Air Force will run an experiment this summer designed to guide their future approach to close air support (CAS). Contrary to some headlines, this experiment, titled OA-X, is not designed to replace the A-10. Instead, it aimed at supplementing existing CAS capabilities by offering a platform designed to operate specifically in “low-intensity” conflicts at a lower cost than aircraft like the A-10 or F-35. The OA-X competitors will include two turboprop aircraft, the Embraer, and Sierra Nevada Corp. A-29 Super Tucano and Beechcraft’s AT-6 Wolverine, and Textron Airland’s Scorpion light attack jet. Air Force Chief of Staff General David Goldfein said earlier this year that OA-X could be “a more sustainable model” for future CAS, but it will be competing against more strategically important platforms, like the B-21 bomber, for funding. Thus, integrating the OA-X winner into the force is no sure thing. 

Flags of NATO member countries flutter during a handover ceremony at the NATO summit in Brussels on Thursday, May 25, 2017. AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert, Pool

Potential Step Toward Defining an “Act of Cyberwar” – Article V of the NATO charter has been discussed at great length following President Trump’s recent visit to Brussels but buried beneath the headlines dissecting what Trump did or didn’t say. In his speech was news that NATO officials believe that Article V could be invoked in the wake of a major cyber attack, akin to the massive 2007 cyber attack on Estonia, believed to have been carried out by Russia. Coming nearly a year after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg championed the same idea in an interview. If NATO institutionalized criterions for what sort of cyber attack would warrant inciting Article V, it would be a major step in defining “cyberwar,” which still has no commonly accepted definition. It is beneficial for many states not to define cyber war as it permits them greater operational latitude in the so-called fifth-domain. Although public definitions remain elusive, it can be assured that individual states have uniquely calibrated red lines vis-à-vis cyber attacks. The danger arises from this ambiguity as anything, and nothing can amount to an act of “cyberwar.” 

June 22, 2014 - The Missile Defense Agency's Flight Test 06b Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014. Missile Defense Agency

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1919, First Lieutenant Elmer F. Stone, USCG, piloting the Navy’s flying boat NC-4 in the first successful trans-Atlantic flight, landed in the Tagus River estuary near Lisbon, Portugal on 27 May 1919.

The origin of icebreaking in the United States came in the 1830s, with the advent of steam propulsion, however, the design of the icebreaker has been perfected over the years. 

DoD artwork by Victor Popper

Get Ready for Armed Icebreakers – For decades, the only military vessels traversing the icy waters of the Arctic were submarines. As Arctic ice continues to melt, giving way to new potential sea-lanes, competition for control of this vital region will continue to expand, with icebreakers playing a major role. Recent comments by the head of the U.S. Coast Guard and concepts revealed at a recent shipbuilding expo show that the icebreakers of the future will be different: they will be armed.

Armed icebreakers are nothing new, but remain rare. To date, Norway has been the only Navy to advance the concept. Russia’s icebreaker fleet expansion is well documented, and it already has the world’s largest available fleet when counting both military and privately owned vessels. Its next generation icebreaker, the 7,000-ton Project 23350, will be with anti-ship missiles and a deck gun. U.S. Coast Guard chief Admiral Paul Zukunft has gone on the record suggesting that future U.S. icebreakers will be armed with cruise missiles.

An article by Andreas Kuersten published at War on the Rocks last October suggests that militarizing icebreakers is wholly inappropriate. If the military is set on arming American icebreakers, focusing on surface warfare may be the wrong approach. Since surface maneuver in the Arctic is completely defined by the very slow and deliberate movement of icebreakers, the main threat to the ships comes from submarines, which are capable of free movement beneath the ice. Before the going all in on arming icebreakers, investing in anti-submarine technologies might be a more appropriate alternative.

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1969, after ten days and ten bloody assaults, Hill 937 in South Vietnam is finally captured by U.S. and South Vietnamese troops. The Americans who fought there cynically dubbed Hill 937 “Hamburger Hill” because the battle and its high casualty rate reminded them of a meat grinder. U.S. military command had ordered Hill 937 taken primarily as a diversionary tactic, and on May 28 it was abandoned.

Armed Forces Day - May 20, 2017

On August 31, 1949, Secretary of Defense Louis Johnson announced the creation of an Armed Forces Day to replace separate Army, Navy and Air Force Days. The single-day celebration stemmed from the unification of the Armed Forces under one department -- the Department of Defense. Each of the military leagues and orders was asked to drop sponsorship of its specific service day in order to celebrate the newly announced Armed Forces Day. The Army, Navy and Air Force leagues adopted the newly formed day. The Marine Corps League declined to drop support for Marine Corps Day but supports Armed Forces Day, too.

Afghanistan: Once More Unto the Breach – As President Trump continues to weigh his options on how to proceed with America’s longest war in Afghanistan, there has been no shortage of arguments regarding U.S. involvement.  Some are calling Afghanistan a lost cause, while others are suggesting that a secure Afghanistan is vital to the security of this region in South Asia.

U.S. Army Special Forces Soldiers speak with a village elder during a Convoy Reconnaissance Patrol at Badamak, in the Uruzgan province of Afghanistan.

U.S. Army photo by PFC Simon Lee

Eli Lake reported this week for Bloomberg View that, according to his sources with access to a classified Intelligence Community document found that the U.S. military would need to deploy fifty thousand additional troops to shore up the Ghani government. Coming on the heels of an announcement last week where the President’s internal strategy reassessment group found that between three to five thousand additional troops are necessary to break Afghanistan’s with the Taliban. Stephen Walt in Foreign Policy (“What’s the Point of Trump’s Afghan Surge?”) ask five questions, most importantly: “What is your definition of victory, and what’s the anticipated timeline?” Given President Trump’s campaign rhetoric about the military “winning,” how he defines victory in Afghanistan is of vital importance.

Writing for RealClearDefense, Jeff Goodson, a retired Foreign Service Officer with experience in Afghanistan, contends, “there is no “win” or “lose” in Afghanistan.” However, Goodson offers: “The long-running objective of ensuring that Afghanistan never again serves as a sanctuary for international terrorism serves American interests as much today as it did fifteen years ago.” Goodson does not see that goal as one that can be relinquished to a timeline because “Afghanistan is far too important to U.S. national security for us to either walk away or let this theatre of the global jihad spin out of control from simple neglect.” In contrast, Philip Carter, Center for New American Security, took to Slate Magazine to proffer President Trump’s “Forever War.” Carter takes a historical view of the war, reflecting on the height of the troop surge in the country and concluding: “If the U.S. could not succeed at counterinsurgency in Afghanistan with more than 100,000 troops, it is unlikely the U.S. can succeed with 12,000 troops.” In the end, all seem to agree that a comprehensive long-term strategy is required to solve the historic perplexity that is Afghanistan. 

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1865, the last battle of the Civil War, fought near the Rio Grande River, ends in a Confederate victory. Soon after, word arrives of the surrender of the Confederate armies in the east and these men give themselves up to Union forces on June 2nd. The Civil War is officially over at the cost of more than 600,000 dead.

Celebrating Fallen Patriots Day

Officially proclaimed by mayors and governors throughout the nation, May 13th is recognized as Fallen Patriots Day. Since 2002, Children of Fallen Patriots has provided more than $12.3 million in total assistance, including college scholarships, supplemental grants and educational counseling to military children who have lost a parent in the line of duty. This special day honors the bravery of surviving children.

Will the Army’s M17 Pistol End Up Being a Sig Sauer? – After a lengthy competition that Sen. Thom Tillis, R-NC, described as a “testament to what’s wrong with defense acquisition,” the Army selected Sig Sauer’s P320 MHS as the winner of the Modular Handgun System contract in January, beating out competitors Glock and Smith & Wesson. Glock protested the contract according to the Government Accountability Office in February. That protest is still in the process of being evaluated and is expected by June 5.

The Sig Sauer P320 was selected as the Army's new handgun, officials announced Jan. 19. The handguns will be delivered over a period of 10 years. Photo Credit: Courtesy photo from Sig Sauer.

Sig now faces another challenge in the form of a copyright lawsuit filed against it by Austrian arms maker Steyr. Steyer contends that the core of the Sig P320 (the commercial variant of the M17), its modular chassis system that fits inside a polymer grip module, breaches a patent granted in 2001. Matthew Moss reports for Task & Purpose, “Steyr is demanding preliminary and permanent injunctions against Sig Sauer to prevent them from selling the infringing pistols.” 

Moss contends that Steyr likely seeks a financial settlement and a court mandated licensing of the modular technology it patented so long ago. How the case will affect the M17 program is not immediately clear, but added licensing costs could alter Sig’s bottom line, and in turn the total program cost. The Sig M17’s per unit cost is reportedly just $207, which is argued to have been a major selling point for the firearm. The Glock contract protest combined with the Steyr lawsuit throw the Sig M17’s future into question. 

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1937, the airship Hindenburg, the largest dirigible ever built and the pride of Nazi Germany, bursts into flames upon touching its mooring mast in Lakehurst, New Jersey, killing 36 passengers and crewmembers. 

A Farewell to FONOPs – and Southeast Asia?

The U.S. appears to be out of the freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) business, at least for the time being. Several requests by U.S. Pacific Command and the U.S. Navy to sail ships within twelve nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea were denied by the Pentagon, according to a report from the New York Times. To date, there has been no U.S. FONOP in the South China Sea since President Trump took office, but with just over one hundred days in office, there is still time. Some see this move as an attempt to entice China into helping on the North Korea issue. The denial of FONOPs is a stark departure from rhetoric used by the members of the Trump Administration during the campaign, transition, and confirmation processes of individual secretaries. The Trump administration now appears to be seeking to reassure regional allies. President Trump spoke by phone with President Duterte of the Philippines, Prime Minister Lee of Singapore, and Prime Minister Prayut of Thailand, all of whom he invited to visit the White House. 

State visits are good diplomacy, but actions do in fact speak louder than words in many instances. Ceding to China in the South China Sea poses the risk of a ripple effect throughout Southeast Asia. Already, Thailand and the Philippines are working closer with China on matters of national security and economic cooperation. Successful visits by individual leaders to Washington will be vital to shoring up U.S. interests in Asia, as will productive trips by Trump to the APEC and ASEAN Summits later this year. 

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1970, U.S. and South Vietnamese forces launch a limited “incursion” into Cambodia. The campaign included 13 major ground operations to clear North Vietnamese sanctuaries 20 miles inside the Cambodian border. Some 50,000 South Vietnamese soldiers and 30,000 U.S. troops were involved, making it the largest operation of the war since Operation Junction City in 1967. The incursion also angered many in Congress, who felt that Nixon was illegally widening the scope of the war; this resulted in a series of congressional resolutions and legislative initiatives that would severely limit the executive power of the president.

ATLANTIC OCEAN (March 4, 2016) SeaRAM, a new system for guided-missile destroyers, is test fired March 4, 2016 from the guided-missile destroyer USS Porter (DDG 78). 

U.S. Navy

Navy Advances New Missile Defense Capabilities – The U.S. Navy’s new amphibious assault ship USS America recently tested the latest variant its latest Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) against a “remote-controlled drone during live-fire exercises.” A similar test occurred this week aboard the USS Jackson (LCS 6), with the drone playing the part of an incoming anti-ship missile. The SeaRAM Block II serves as a multi-purpose Close-in Weapon System (CiWS) that serves to augment the 20mm Phalanx in the role of ship defense. According to the Navy, “[t]he RAM Block 2 configuration is currently in low-rate initial production.” These successful tests should reinforce the Navy’s decision to equip several different classes of its ships with the SeaRAM as a component of their layered ship defense systems.

The Navy also tested this month a new version of its Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) equipped with software upgrades that give it “active” seeker capabilities. According to Kris Osborn at Scout Warrior explains that "active" seeker technologies:

“ . . . send a signal or electromagnetic ping forward in addition to receiving them. Electromagnetic signals, which travel at the speed of light, send a signal forward before analyzing the return signal to determine the shape, size, speed or configuration of an approaching threat. Since the speed of light is known, and the time of travel is able to be determined, a computer algorithm is able to calculate the exact distance of an object.”

Both of these developments taken together show the Navy’s continued improvements in missile defense technologies. They will be integral in ship/fleet-defense in any future conflict. As potential adversaries invest in new anti-ship weapons, the Navy will continue to build off these successes by modernizing defensive weapons technologies.

The future USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) underway on its own power for the first time. 

U.S. Navy photo by MC2 Ridge Leoni

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1944, the 1st Air Commando Group, led by Lt. Col. Clinton B. Gaty, using Sikorsky R-4 helicopters stage the first use of helicopters in combat with combat search and rescue operations in the China-Burma-India theater.

U.S. Navy photo courtesy of Michael D. Jackson

Is “Buy America” Best for Defense? - President Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday, ordering a “150-day audit of all government agencies” purchasing practices to determine if they are sufficiently abiding by so-called “Buy American” laws. Writing for Breaking Defense, Colin Clark characterizes the move as an inane approach to defense acquisition. In fact, it could be to the detriment of U.S. men and women in uniform. As Clark points out, the F-35 is an aircraft built and developed by a consortium of allies and defense partners. All of the T-X future Air Force trainer program competitors include partnerships with foreign companies. Moreover, the Marine Corps is eyeing further adoption of a German made infantry rifle.

Clark’s article also illuminates an under-reported section of the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that joined Australia and Great Britain with Canada as members of the U.S. defense industrial base. This move was taken in preemption of a “Buy American” review and exempts those countries from any such review.

Defense News’ Aaron Mehta interviewed Jeff Bialos, a former deputy undersecretary of defense for industrial policy now with Eversheds Sutherland, who fears that, “tightening Buy American rules might increase jobs in the U.S., but cause partner nations to look elsewhere for foreign weapons sales — which could result, ironically, in fewer production requirements, and hence job cuts at American facilities.” Trump may be reminded of the fact that not all things built in America are the best option for their given purpose by looking at his collection of cars, which is stocked with fine European automobiles.

Juan Carlos I LHD

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon.  On this day in 1865, President Abraham Lincoln, the 16th president of the United States, dies from an assassin’s bullet. Shot by John Wilkes Booth at Ford’s Theater in Washington the night before, Lincoln lived for nine hours before succumbing to the severe head wound he sustained.

PUERTO CASTILLO, Honduras (Nov. 25, 2011) A U.S. Marine assigned to the Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force (SPMAGTF) observes as a Honduran service member fires his rifle during a failure-to-stop drill. 

U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl Josh Pettway

10 U.S. Code § 12304b and the Role of Reserve/Guard Forces – Writing this week for RealClearDefense, Brian E. Wish resurfaced a troubling reality that faces all National Guard and Reserve troops of the U.S. military: if involuntarily mobilized for deployment abroad under section 12304b of U.S. Code 10, they are not eligible for the same benefits granted to active duty troops, or Reserve and Guard Troops that volunteer for duty. Including Marine Reservists deployed to Honduras last year, South Carolina National Guard troops that are preparing to deploy to Europe as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve, and any Guard or Reserve troops deployed to future peacekeeping missions. Wish illustrates that Congress could easily remedy the situation, but thus far the only action taken has been a bill sponsored by Sen. Al Franken, D-Min., that died in the Senate in 2015. 

Wish also addresses the proper role of the National Guard and Reserves. Designed as a strategic force held to maintain readiness for a large-scale conflict that requires quick mobilization of large numbers of troops. In the Post-9/11 landscape, however, these forces have regularly deployed in record numbers. Wish argues that the best route forward is to right size the active duty force so that it can fulfill its duties without depleting the National Guard and Reserve forces.

The Air Force’s Pilot Crisis – Capitalism is thriving for pilots.  Airlines are turning to Air Force pilots to fill the current high demand for commercial pilots. Unable to compete for the lucrative salaries offered by commercial airlines, the Air Force is facing a major deficit following the massive exodus of pilots in search of a steady job with appealing benefits.

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1981, General of the Army Omar Bradley, commander of the 12th Army Group who ensured Allied victory over Germany, dies. Born on February 12, 1893, Bradley was a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point (Dwight Eisenhower was a classmate). During World War II, he was promoted to commander of the U.S. 12th Army Group, the largest force ever placed under an American group commander, and led successful operations in France, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, and Czechoslovakia. After the war, Bradley was chosen as the first chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and ultimately promoted to the position of General of the Army in 1950. In 1951, he published his reminiscences of the war in A Soldier’s Story. He retired in 1953.

U.S. Naval Aviation’s Doldrums – U.S. Navy aviation has seen better days. The latest in a line of bad breaks is the recent grounding of the entire fleet of T-45 Goshawk trainers following a drastic year-over-year increase in incidents of hypoxia stemming from the plane’s oxygen system. The problem led this week to a boycott by instructor pilots who refused to get back into the cockpit until the problem was fixed. Increasing rates of hypoxia are not confined to just the T-45; the F/A-18 family of aircraft has also experienced a similar problem with hypoxia.

The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Block III

Boeing

Aside from problems with its oxygen system, the Navy’s F/A-18 fleet is in a dismal state of disrepair, with nearly two-thirds of airframes unfit for flight per a February report from Defense News. The Navy lacks the money to keep up with repairs and overhauls, and the F-35C slated to replace the aging F/A-18s is still a long way from entering the fleet. The F-35C’s landing gear has been found to create uncontrollable and disorienting oscillation during catapult takeoffs from aircraft carrier decks, which create major safety risks for pilots. The Navy has identified potential fixes for this issue but doesn’t plan to test them until later this year. In the meantime, the Navy is looking at purchasing more F/A-18s as a stopgap measure, as well as integrating new F/A-18 Block IIIs into its operational plans well into the future. Likely not the plan the Navy had envisioned, and another continuing resolution looks to set back current plans and readiness even further.

Stealth Tankers? – As Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) technology continues to advance,  the U.S. Military’s ability to operate globally are coming under increasing threat. The limited number of forward operating bases for fighter aircraft and the relatively limited range of the F-22 and F-35 require a fleet of tankers to support future contingencies.  The extended range of A2/AD systems, however, would also put the Air Force’s tanker fleet at increased risk.

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1863, the first Army Medal of Honor is presented to PVT Jacob Parrott of the 33rd Ohio Infantry. Four others are so honored this day as well. And in 1994, at the end of a largely unsuccessful 15-month mission, the last U.S. troops depart Somalia, leaving 20,000 U.N. troops behind to keep the peace and facilitate “nation building” in the divided country.

Bangkok at Night

Wikimedia

Small Unit Approach to Megacities – Speaking this week at the Future of War conference, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said that the military has a decade to be ready for the challenge of combat in so-called megacities: cities with a population of ten million or more. A fundamental shift in the character of warfare as battle shifts to from woodland and desert environs to megacities. Some may dispute that point, but what is irrefutable is that military weapons platforms and force structures of the future will need to conform, such as a smaller is better approach.

Milley foresees smaller units networked with other branches to fully embody the Army’s evolving multi-domain concept. The units will be small, "probably somewhere in the range of companies to battalions," according to Milley, and there will be a lot of them. Maj. John Spencer of West Point’s Modern War Institute recently laid out a path forward for constructing Urban Warfare units using the brigade force package model. Milley, in contrast, suggests that the big army could take cues from Special Forces in constructing its future urban warfare force.

Technological changes will also be necessary, requiring a smaller is a better paradigm for acquisition. Everything from the length of helicopter rotors to the size of tanks will need to shrink. As the Army currently assesses new armor platforms, proceeds with its Future of Vertical Lift program, and gauges the mobility needs of soldiers in future combat environments, size will become an ever more important consideration as defense industry designs innovative solutions.

In this May 2012 file photo provided by China's Xinhua News Agency, Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning cruises for a test in the sea. 

AP Photo/Xinhua, Li Tang, File

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1969, U.S. B-52 bombers are diverted from their targets in South Vietnam to attack suspected communist base camps and supply areas in Cambodia for the first time in the war. President Nixon approved the mission–formally designated Operation Breakfast–at a meeting of the National Security Council on March 15. This mission and subsequent B-52 strikes inside Cambodia became known as the “Menu” bombings. This bombing of Cambodia and all follow up “Menu” operations were kept secret from the American public and the U.S. Congress because Cambodia was ostensibly neutral. Although the New York Times broke the story of the secret bombing campaign in May 1969, there was little adverse public reaction.

Fearing the “Mighty Dragon”? - As the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF) most advanced fighter enters service, recent reporting suggests that U.S. fighter pilots worried about potential air-to-air combat against China’s most advanced fighter, the Chengdu J-20, can rest easy at night.  For one, the plane is confirmed to be equipped with a Chinese made engine.  Chinese turbofan fighter engines have a poor performance record, which has driven its reliance on Russian produced engines for many years. In fact, J-20s were reportedly fitted initially with old Russian-made engines first fielded in the 1980s rather than newer, Chinese-made turbo-fans. The WS-15, which has yet to be installed on any jets in the infant J-20 fleet, is China’s most advanced domestically built fighter engine to date. Given China’s track record, growing pains and hiccups along the way are all but assured. Furthermore, the plane appears to lack nozzles in its engine, detracting from stealth and maneuverability. The aircraft is a major step forward for the PLAAF but lags behind U.S. fifth-generation fighter aircraft. China recognizes this deficit and is investing heavily in modernizing and advancing its aerospace engine industry, its ultimate goal being to match Russian and U.S. prowess in this realm.

Overstating the Russian Threat? - Russian economic data confirmed this week that its military budget would witness a 25.5% decrease in 2017, its largest year-over-year drop since the dark days of the early 1990s immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union. As Kyle Mizokami notes at Popular Mechanics, “Russia will go from the fourth largest spender on military hardware in the world to the eighth, behind India and France.”  This reflects an underreported fact in the media: Russia is not as big of a threat as its leaders would like you to think.

Economic problems stemming from international sanctions and dropping oil prices, a demographic crisis that will see its population drop 16% by 2050, and a long list of domestic issues will plague Russia for years to come. This is not to say that Russia does not have the ability to wreak havoc, but its ability to be the bogeyman it portrays itself as diminishes with each day. Russia’s large nuclear arsenal, which it is upgrading and deploying in defiance of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, ensures that it will remain an existential threat. Russia’s conventional forces have made great strides in modernization in recent years, but the government lacks the funds to fully acquire and integrate new systems. Russia has built up its capabilities in information/cyber warfare as a means of unconventional disruption in other countries, and its use of so-called ‘hybrid-warfare’ in Ukraine has Europe rightfully on edge. Russia will continue to be a nuisance and threaten Western interests for decades to come, but it is a diminishing military threat. As Sen. John McCain noted this week when he sat down to record a podcast with RealClearDefense, Putin is, “playing a weak hand very cleverly.” It can only go so far before he must fold.